Schema · Prediction
ExpectedDelta
An auditable distribution over effect size with an explicit baseline delta and effect window. Prose predictions become numbers you can reconcile against.
canonical source
packages/foundation3/src/DecisionCertificate.ts:93-105Fields
metricId string The metric this prediction targets baselineValue number Value before the change expectedValue number Predicted value after the change delta number expectedValue minus baselineValue, stored not inferred for audit replay lowerBound number Low end of the predicted interval upperBound number High end of the predicted interval confidence number 0..1 Calibrated confidence in the prediction horizonDays number >=0 When the predicted effect should materialize Live instances · 21
Every place this type is instantiated across the 21 decision certificates on this site.
Reframe ryanhunter.io into the proof-stack hub
026e7e0 metricIdaudiences.routedbaselineValue1expectedValue3delta2lowerBound1upperBound3confidence0.75horizonDays90
Vet and publish the curated Exocortex anthology
9e7ad79 metricIdresearch.published_artifactsbaselineValue0expectedValue4delta4lowerBound0upperBound4confidence0.75horizonDays90
Build the 15-term agent-infrastructure lexicon collection and routes
9e7ad79 metricIdseo.indexable_term_pagesbaselineValue0expectedValue15delta15lowerBound0upperBound15confidence0.75horizonDays120
Generate the branded favicon set and per-page programmatic OG cards
9e7ad79 metricIdpages.with_social_cardbaselineValue0expectedValue1delta1lowerBound0upperBound1confidence0.75horizonDays60
Surface and dark-reskin the Agent Civilization Field Manual
9e7ad79 metricIdauthority.public_pagesbaselineValue0expectedValue1delta1lowerBound0upperBound1confidence0.75horizonDays90
Emit schema.org DefinedTerm JSON-LD on every lexicon page
a40a253 metricIdseo.rich_result_eligible_pagesbaselineValue0expectedValue15delta15lowerBound0upperBound15confidence0.75horizonDays120
Ship the llms.txt machine-readable site index
a40a253 metricIdagent.ingestion_surfacesbaselineValue0expectedValue1delta1lowerBound0upperBound1confidence0.75horizonDays60
Build decision certificates from the crc-v3 lineage tied to commits
14ded3d metricIdchanges.with_decision_certificatebaselineValue0expectedValue11delta11lowerBound0upperBound11confidence0.75horizonDays90
Build the sanitized build-in-public changelog with RSS
14ded3d metricIdbuild_in_public.feedsbaselineValue0expectedValue1delta1lowerBound0upperBound1confidence0.75horizonDays60
Mine and add 10 repo-grounded lexicon terms (15 to 25)
14ded3d metricIdseo.indexable_term_pagesbaselineValue15expectedValue25delta10lowerBound15upperBound25confidence0.75horizonDays120
Ship per-page markdown endpoints plus copy and interrogate-in-LLM actions
14ded3d metricIdpages.agent_interrogablebaselineValue0expectedValue29delta29lowerBound0upperBound29confidence0.75horizonDays90
Render the full DecisionCertificate ontology: schema explorer plus rich graph-derived certificates
7ae5c64 metricIdoutcome.achievedbaselineValue0expectedValue1delta1lowerBound0upperBound1confidence0.75horizonDays90
Real cryptographic anchoring: ECDSA P-256 signed Merkle root with in-browser verification
56a8375 metricIdoutcome.achievedbaselineValue0expectedValue1delta1lowerBound0upperBound1confidence0.75horizonDays90
Author the dream cycle and ship /dreams with three seeded reveries
1135d44 metricIdcontent.dream_cyclesbaselineValue0expectedValue3delta3lowerBound0upperBound3confidence0.75horizonDays120
Build the interactive crc-v3 proof graph
56a8375 metricIdoutcome.achievedbaselineValue0expectedValue1delta1lowerBound0upperBound1confidence0.75horizonDays90
Build /map curated audience-routed hub and resolve the route-sprawl critique
a88dbc6 metricIdux.curated_indexbaselineValue0expectedValue1delta1lowerBound0upperBound1confidence0.75horizonDays90
Curate and ship /prompts with fourteen grounded routing prompts
1135d44 metricIdagent.injection_promptsbaselineValue0expectedValue14delta14lowerBound0upperBound14confidence0.75horizonDays120
Build /pulse proof-of-life with build vitals and a client-side heartbeat
1135d44 metricIdsite.liveness_surfacebaselineValue0expectedValue1delta1lowerBound0upperBound1confidence0.75horizonDays90
Author and ship /self-critique with four signed graded findings
1135d44 metricIdaudit.public_self_findingsbaselineValue0expectedValue4delta4lowerBound0upperBound4confidence0.75horizonDays90
Build /serve: ask-your-AI interrogate with a self-referential example certificate
a949d0c metricIdoutcome.achievedbaselineValue0expectedValue1delta1lowerBound0upperBound1confidence0.75horizonDays90
Build /terminal as a client-side console over the baked site index
1135d44 metricIdux.alt_interfacesbaselineValue0expectedValue1delta1lowerBound0upperBound1confidence0.75horizonDays90
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